Environmental Engineers & Scientists > Geologist > Remedial Contractors
PA PLAYS KEY ROLE – EXXON MOBIL REPORT FORECASTS INCREASES IN GAS USE; CLEANER AIR WILL FOLLOW
In early December, the results of a widely respected annual energy forecast document, prepared by the Exxon Mobil Corporation, forecasted significant increases, in natural gas supply and consumption. This information is no surprise to Pennsylvanians, most of whom know that Pennsylvania is now a natural gas exporter; increased Marcellus Shale gas generation now exceeds the state’s consumption.
In other recent articles, including those by the Wall Street Journal, it was forecast that:
- The consumption of coal is expected to begin a decline, after 2025.
- By that time, natural gas will replace coal as the lead fuel for electricity production.
- Energy companies are starting invest “back home”, and both oil and gas produced domestically, could exceed domestic demands.
- Two decades ago, there were considered to be “limits to growth”, with occasional forecasts that the United States would face ever increasing energy costs.
- That is now unlikely to happen.
- Hybrid vehicles could increase from 1% to 40% in 2040, with fuel efficienty up to 27 mpg.
We think that good old American ingenuity and technical advances are leading to use of cleaner fuels, at a lower costs, particularly to consumers. Construction and jobs involved in gathering and pipeline construction as well as drilling, are on the rise in Pennsylvania.
Many experienced environmental engineers scientists and managers, never thought that increased use of cleaner fuels would occur in their lifetimes. It is anticipated that when power plants are modified for and/or reconstructed, they will increasingly consume natural gas to produce energy. Already, many power plants use gas fired modular units for “peaking”, improving air quality during hot summer months. Undoubtedly, cleaner and cleaner air will occur in the future, which is good for
everyone.
Although the fracking and gas gathering process is controversial, we think that the incidence of problems is relatively low, and that more experience will result in safer drilling. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection is increasing inspection of drilling sites, issuing violations where needed, and most importantly, visiting future drilling sites, to make sure that plans are in order and that drilling locations are appropriate, before permits are issued.
Deep and horizontal drilling technology has also advanced to the point, that drillers, once they realized that gathering and transmission technology is installed, think that maybe drill pad sites which are generally less than five acres in size, where clusters of wells are installed, may be used repeatedly now that technology can place wells and fracture rocks to deeper depths and to tap Utica Shale in the future. The prospect now is that the Marcellus and Utica Shale will provide clean natural gas for generations to come. With more motor vehicles able to combust natural gas, as an energy option, widespread benefits involving cleaner and cleaner air could be on our horizon.
Pennsylvania suffered through a generation or two of industrial plant closings where there were good jobs for generations. Although it can be said that many drilling jobs are skilled, and involve workers coming from out of state, there are many economic spinoffs from the Marcellus Shale gas development involving employment in the hospitality industry, restaurants, constructing gathering and transmission lines, and the staff ongoing gas production operations, which will benefit many Pennsylvanians.
Just a few years ago, those in Southwestern Pennsylvania heard many Pennsylvanians say that the Marcellus Gas was the “new steel”. Although considered an exaggeration at the time, the benefits from gas exploration and extraction could turn out to be much better from an economic and environmental standpoint, as are air becomes cleaner, and homes heating
natural gas prices fall. Undoubtedly, a brighter future with cleaner air lies ahead for Pennsylvanians.
- Gary R. Brown, P.E.